WN 4074 · BNA → ECP

departs 4:07 PM CT · arrives 5:37 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8939Q (B38M), coming in as WN 4074 from STL: landed 3:57 PM CT.

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +83 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ECP?

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
75%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
15%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4074 · BNA → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?