WN 4089 · MCO → RIC

departs 3:25 PM ET · arrives 5:28 PM ET

Your aircraft is N7820L (B737), coming in as WN 3602 from FLL: landed 2:41 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4089 · MCO → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?