Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4102
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4102 · PHX → BUR
departs 11:57 AM MT · arrives 12:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from PHX are often late
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into BUR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.