WN 4191 · OAK → SNA

took off 7:32 PM PT · landed 8:34 PM PT (scheduled 4:21 PM PT → 5:55 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from OAK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4191 · OAK → SNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SNA?