Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4210
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 4210 · LAX → SFO
departs 3:31 PM PT · arrives 4:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 11/14
Tue 11/17 52%
Wed 11/18 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±9 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.14 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.