Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4219
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4219 · TPA → SAT
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 3:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Fri 11/13 14%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 18%
Mon 11/16 20%
Tue 11/17 7%
Wed 11/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.