Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4268
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4268 · SMF → BOI
departs 11:42 AM PT · arrives 2:21 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BOI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOI?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Arrivals into BOI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.