Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4296
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4296 · SLC → LAX
departs 12:31 PM MT · arrives 1:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
12pm departures from SLC are usually not late
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.28 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.