Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 4461 · BWI → AUS
departs 5:52 PM ET · arrives 8:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 50%
Mon 11/16 31%
Tue 11/17 27%
Wed 11/18 33%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,167 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.