WN 4511 · MDW → TPA

took off 2:13 PM CT · landed 5:19 PM ET (scheduled 1:16 PM CT → 4:46 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4511 · MDW → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?