Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 451 · DEN → TUL
departs 5:31 PM MT · arrives 8:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 11/14
Tue 11/17 34%
Wed 11/18 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±5 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.