Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4531
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4531 · SNA → SMF
departs 1:16 PM PT · arrives 2:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±8 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.