Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4804 · SFO → SAN
departs 11:16 AM PT · arrives 12:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Fri 11/13 85%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 39%
Tue 11/17 37%
Wed 11/18 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SFO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.