Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 4843 · SAN → SJC
departs 5:05 PM PT · arrives 6:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 11/14
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.