Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4863 · MCI → DAL
departs 4:06 PM CT · arrives 5:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 11/13 18%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 17%
Mon 11/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.