Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4905
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4905 · FLL → MDW
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 5:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 11/13 41%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from FLL are often late
↑
FLL is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.