Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4923
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4923 · STL → PHL
departs 5:07 PM CT · arrives 8:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 30%
Tue 11/17 25%
Wed 11/18 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.