WN 644 · BNA → MCO

departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 8:16 PM ET

Your aircraft is N8569Z (B738), coming in as WN 2556 from LGA: in the air, landing about 4:51 PM CT, 21 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

93% chance · ±0 pts +66 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
6%
15–30 min late
64%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
17%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 644 · BNA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?