WN 645 · BNA → MCO

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 5:26 PM ET

Your aircraft is N8950L (B38M).

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 645 · BNA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?