WN 705 · LAS → SAT

departs 12:25 PM PT · arrives 5:09 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8936Q (B38M), coming in as WN 1754 from MCO: landed 12:16 PM PT.

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 705 · LAS → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?