Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 765 · SBA → LAS
departs 10:51 AM PT · arrives 12:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 11/12 19%
Fri 11/13 27%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 21%
Mon 11/16 26%
Tue 11/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.05 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.