Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8230 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, November 14 Today

WN 8230 · IAD → MKE

departs 7:17 PM ET · arrives 8:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at IAD that day

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 8230 · IAD → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?