Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Today
WN 8231 · IAD → MKE
departs 8:32 PM ET · arrives 9:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MKE at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at IAD that day
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MKE (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.