WN 8504 · LAS → DAL

took off 1:00 PM PT · expected to land 5:07 PM CT (scheduled 11:02 AM PT → 3:49 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DAL?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
99%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from LAS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

DAL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 8504 · LAS → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?