Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8821 LANDED 12:51 AM PT, ~35 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, November 14 Yesterday

WN 8821 · OAK → SMF

took off 12:29 AM PT · landed 12:51 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 19h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −35 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 1am departures from OAK are usually not late

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 8821 · OAK → SMF

Odds over time