Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 945
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 945 · LAS → PHX
departs 4:29 PM PT · arrives 6:46 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 11/14
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at LAS that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.