Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 951 · BOI → SMF
departs 4:32 PM MT · arrives 5:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Fri 11/13 39%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
BOI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
BOI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.