Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 964 · PHX → DEN
departs 12:58 PM MT · arrives 2:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.