9E 4891 · ORF → JFK

departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

61% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
45%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from ORF are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4891 · ORF → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?