Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1290 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow

AA 1290 · DFW → JAX

departs 5:33 PM CT · arrives 8:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.62 in

JAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1290 · DFW → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?