Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1536 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

AA 1536 · DFW → FLL

departs 11:37 AM CT · arrives 3:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.93 in

FLL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1536 · DFW → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?