AA 1715 · ORD → AUS

departs 7:47 PM CT · arrives 10:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1715 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?