AA 1744 · PHX → CLE

departs 4:57 PM MT · arrives 10:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLE at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1744 · PHX → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?