AA 1826 · PHL → SFO

departs 6:39 PM ET · arrives 9:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±13 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1826 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?