AA 2109 · DFW → CVG

departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 11:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.64 in

CVG (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2109 · DFW → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?