AA 2202 · BUF → ORD

departs 6:41 PM ET · arrives 7:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

ORD (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2202 · BUF → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?