AA 2228 · RSW → PHX

departs 5:23 PM ET · arrives 8:38 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2228 · RSW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?