AA 2496 · PDX → DFW

departs 2:33 PM PT · arrives 8:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±7 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

DFW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2496 · PDX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?