AA 2781 · DFW → CVG

departs 5:31 PM CT · arrives 8:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±8 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.61 in

CVG (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2781 · DFW → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?