AA 2843 · SAT → DFW

departs 5:44 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±7 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.65 in

DFW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2843 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?