AA 2868 · DFW → BNA

departs 7:50 PM CT · arrives 9:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.61 in

BNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2868 · DFW → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?