AA 3006 · DFW → ONT

departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 7:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±6 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.61 in

ONT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3006 · DFW → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?