Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 402 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

AA 402 · SFO → DFW

departs 5:32 AM PT · arrives 11:10 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±7 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SFO are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 402 · SFO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?