AA 419 · SJD → DFW

departs 4:32 PM MST · arrives 8:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD

Weather at each end

SJD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 419 · SJD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?