Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 59 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

AA 59 · LAX → KOA

departs 1:30 PM PT · arrives 5:10 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 59 · LAX → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?