Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 779 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

AA 779 · DFW → EWR

departs 11:57 AM CT · arrives 4:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.44 in

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 779 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?