Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
DL 1421 · LAX → SFO
departs 7:28 AM PT · arrives 8:51 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Fri 11/13 78%
Sat 11/14 40%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 38%
Tue 11/17 33%
Wed 11/18 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
62%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
62%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at SFO that day
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.