DL 184 · JFK → MXP

departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:21 AM CET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at MXP more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MXP?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MXP (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 184 · JFK → MXP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MXP?