DL 2316 · BNA → DTW

departs 6:11 PM CT · arrives 8:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2316 · BNA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?