Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
DL 2530 · SAN → SEA
departs 7:48 AM PT · arrives 10:43 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 11/13 27%
Sat 11/14 19%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 20%
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.